Key takeaways
Over the following decade, tens of millions of child boomers (born 1946–1964) will retire, taking with them a long time of abilities, management, and entrepreneurial know‑how.
That is extra than simply changing staff, it’s a “management cliff” that may ripple throughout industries, areas, and authorities.
Gen X, the following in line, is smaller in quantity, which means mid‑degree and senior management gaps will open shortly.
With out proactive planning, Australia dangers ability shortages, management gaps, and regional decline.
The approaching transition can be a chance to rethink management fashions, workforce planning, and migration coverage for a future‑prepared financial system.
As Simon Kuestenmacher says, this can be a uncommon second to be daring — the following era may reshape Australia as profoundly because the child boomers did.
Australia is standing at a demographic and financial fork within the street.
Over the following decade, tens of millions of child boomers – the post-war era born between 1946 and 1964 – will go away the workforce.
We’re not simply speaking about just a few quiet retirements and goodbye morning teas.
What’s unfolding is an unprecedented exit of ability, management, expertise, and entrepreneurial spirit, and the results will ripple throughout each trade, each area, and each degree of presidency.
Whereas that is no shock, we’ve identified for many years that the child boomers would ultimately age out, and we’ve executed comparatively little to organize.
And that’s an issue.
As demographer Simon Kuestenmacher places it in our newest Demographics Decoded episode, “Child boomers are forsaking greater than empty chairs — they’re forsaking a long time of irreplaceable know-how. And proper now, we’re not prepared.”
For weekly insights subscribe to the Demographics Decoded podcast, the place we’ll proceed to discover these tendencies and their implications in larger element.
Subscribe now in your favorite Podcast participant:
The information and management void
One of many widespread misunderstandings within the broader dialog is assuming this transition is nearly numbers – retire one individual, rent one other.
However in actuality, it’s much more complicated.
Child boomers have dominated senior roles in enterprise, authorities, schooling, healthcare, manufacturing, transport, and agriculture for many years.
They’ve constructed establishments, led groups, and navigated complexity.
Their absence creates a “management cliff.”
What makes this more difficult is that the era following them, Gen X, is numerically smaller.
So companies can’t merely substitute a boomer with a peer-aged successor.
Many Gen Xers will probably be pushed upward into senior roles, maybe a win for them, however it leaves mid-level gaps behind them.
And the pool of millennials might must be fast-tracked into management earlier than they’re absolutely seasoned.
Simon warns, “Companies must get snug selling youthful folks into senior positions sooner than deliberate. It’s not elective.”
And he explains in our podcast that this isn’t only a folks challenge, it’s a structural one.
Hierarchies constructed for a time when folks revered the ‘chain of command’ at the moment are being inherited by youthful generations who count on entry, transparency, and flattened constructions.
In our podcast, Simon warns that corporations that don’t adapt will lose expertise.
The retirement cliff: which industries are most uncovered?
Not all sectors will probably be equally impacted, nevertheless, some industries are strolling straight towards a retirement cliff.
Simon has developed a mannequin to establish sectors the place a disproportionately excessive share of the workforce is nearing retirement, sometimes these aged 55–64.
Essentially the most affected?
- Healthcare: Already beneath strain, about to lose a wave of skilled professionals.
- Training: Lecturers and directors are retiring sooner than we will substitute them.
- Agriculture: Many older farmers are exiting with out successors, resulting in consolidation and depopulation of regional cities.
- Transport and logistics: Bus drivers, truck drivers, supply and freight staff, many are child boomers.
- Manufacturing and trades: Aged-dominated and under-replenished.
In lots of of those areas, the state of affairs is compounded by long-term underinvestment in abilities coaching and TAFE, and a cultural bias pushing younger folks towards college schooling and white-collar careers.
Right this moment, 80% of Australians end Yr 12, and greater than half go on to college, but we face a dire scarcity of plumbers, electricians, bricklayers, aged care staff, mechanics, and drivers.
The migration mistake: we’re not considering strategically
Migration has lengthy been a strain valve for our labour market shortages.
However we’ve fallen into the lure of utilizing migration reactively, not strategically.
Simon argues that we have to “weaponise migration”, not simply open the doorways wider, however goal the correct abilities, prioritise youthful migrants, and align visa classes with long-term demographic wants.
For instance:
- Aged care will double in demand over the following 15 years: we’ll want hundreds extra carers.
- Building and trades are crying out for expert staff, but our consumption doesn’t prioritise trades-based visas.
- Regional areas undergo most acutely, but migrants are inclined to settle in the identical 5 cities that already home two-thirds of the inhabitants.
“We’re the world’s most urbanised nation by focus,” says Simon. “We reside in the identical few cities we did 100 years in the past. We ought to be master-planning new regional centres and linking them with quick rail, however we’re not.”
Australia wants a nationwide demographic technique, a roadmap that explains to the general public why migration issues, the place migrants ought to go, what roles they’ll fill, and the way we’ll help them with housing and infrastructure.
With out it, we threat each political backlash and coverage paralysis.
AI and automation: useful, however no silver bullet
Some argue that AI and robotics will fill the gaps.
However this can be a partial resolution at finest.
Sure, automation will help in manufacturing, logistics, and even aged care administration.
However as Simon rightly says, “We nonetheless want actual folks to serve meals, inventory grocery store cabinets, clear workplaces, and take care of our aged.”
AI received’t mow your garden, construct your extension, or repair your plumbing, not anytime quickly.
And it could possibly’t substitute the emotional intelligence and contextual understanding that actual human staff convey.
The truth is, Simon is adamant: “Excessive unemployment in Australia? I discover that concept ridiculous. The demand for labour will solely develop, and if AI turns into extra productive than anticipated, we will merely scale back our migration consumption.”
The Boomer enterprise sell-off: alternative and threat
Past employment, child boomers additionally dominate small enterprise possession.
- There are 1.7 million self-employed Australians.
- Practically 1 million are sole merchants with no employees, basically one-person companies.
- The remainder personal companies with workers: cafés, dry cleaners, tradie companies, accounting corporations, and extra.
As these house owners age, they’ll need to exit.
That ought to be a chance for youthful entrepreneurs to purchase in, however entry to capital is an issue.
Banks are reluctant to lend to millennials who don’t personal property, particularly for small enterprise acquisition.
And boomers usually overvalue their companies, making offers more durable to shut.
Even worse in regional areas, the place fewer patrons exist.
Companies that may’t be bought usually simply shut, decreasing native providers and rising market focus.
Over time, that results in larger client costs and fewer decisions.
The golden alternative for younger entrepreneurs
In the event you’re a younger Australian with ambition and abilities, particularly within the trades, that is your second.
Simon notes that turning into a sole dealer (relatively than an worker) delivers a 27% revenue enhance on common over a working profession.
That’s successfully an additional decade’s price of wages.
And with a flood of boomers exiting enterprise, there’s a wave of well-established operations, usually worthwhile and with loyal buyer bases, that want new house owners.
However we’d like the correct insurance policies to help this:
- Succession planning in household companies.
- Simpler entry to financing for younger patrons.
- Regional enterprise handover schemes.
- Training to organize younger staff for self-employment.
So, the place will we go from right here?
Right here’s the underside line:
- The workforce is growing older and the substitute pipeline isn’t sufficiently big.
- Migration must be smarter, not simply larger.
- Companies must rethink management, construction, and succession.
- Youthful Australians want help to step into trades and possession roles.
Simon sums it up completely:
“It is a uncommon alternative to rethink how Australia works, to be daring, to organize correctly, and to make sure we hand the following era not only a stronger financial system, however a extra adaptable, extra future-ready society.”
The infant boomers reworked Australia throughout their working lives.
The subsequent era has an opportunity to do the identical if we’re prepared to be proactive, not reactive, in how we handle the approaching transition.
In the event you discovered this dialogue useful, remember to subscribe to our podcast and share it with others who would possibly profit.
Subscribe now in your favorite Podcast participant:
