Key takeaways
Australia has reworked past recognition within the final 100 years.
The subsequent 100 will likely be much more dramatic.
The important thing message: We’re already constructing the long run by right this moment’s selections.
From housing and healthcare to migration and know-how, the seeds we plant now will decide the form of 2125.
A century in the past, Australians had been nonetheless recovering from World Warfare I.
There was no tv, no supermarkets, and no suburbs as we all know them right this moment.
Individuals lived nearer to the town as a result of that’s the place all the roles had been.
Most girls stayed at residence, the common family had a number of youngsters, and migration was largely from the British Isles.
Now, reasonably than trying again a century, fast-forward 100 years.
Can we even start to know what Australia may appear to be in 2125?
Whereas it is tempting to say the long run is unknowable, in actuality, most of the foundations of tomorrow are being laid right this moment.
In a latest episode of Demographics Decoded, Simon Kuestenmacher and I unpacked what life may appear to be in 100 years, drawing on demographic and social developments, housing patterns, and historic context to color an image of Australia’s potential future.
Here is what we uncovered.
For weekly insights and strategic recommendation, subscribe to the Demographics Decoded podcast, the place we are going to proceed to discover these developments and their implications in larger element.
Subscribe now in your favorite Podcast participant:
The form of our cities: nonetheless acquainted, simply denser
If somebody from 1925 checked out a map of Australia right this moment, they’d immediately recognise the key cities: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth.
What may shock them is that regardless of a fivefold inhabitants enhance, we haven’t actually created any new main cities, apart from the Gold Coast.
Simon pointed this out completely: “If the time traveller from 1925 arrived in 2025, they’d really feel very acquainted with the map. That in itself is kind of spectacular, we added individuals however not new cities.”
So, what does this imply for 2125?
We’re more likely to see current cities develop reasonably than totally new city facilities emerge.
Constructing a brand new metropolis requires immense political will, planning, and infrastructure funding, and proper now, there’s little urge for food for that.
Until that modifications, we’ll proceed to funnel hundreds of thousands extra individuals into the identical cities, stretching infrastructure, public transport, and housing provide.
The Gold Coast presents a uncommon case examine.
As soon as a retirement vacation spot dubbed “God’s ready room,” it’s now evolving right into a self-sustaining financial and cultural hub, a correct metropolis in its personal proper.
“It’s a hit story,” Simon famous. “It may not be for everybody, but it surely added option to our city panorama.”
Within the subsequent century, we’ll want two or three extra ‘Gold Coasts’.
Smaller households, longer lives, and a shift within the social material
Household life has modified during the last century, and that’s solely going to speed up.
Fertility charges proceed to fall, with many Australians selecting to have fewer youngsters, or none in any respect.
Again within the Twenties, massive households had been the norm. In the present day, a two-child family is the common.
In 2125, the norm could also be one-child and even child-free households.
However there’s a twist.
Simon floated the potential for a swing again. “If housing turns into extra inexpensive and wealth is considerable, individuals may really feel extra optimistic and resolve to have extra children once more.”
In different phrases, it’s not nearly tradition, it’s about confidence.
In the meantime, lifespans are anticipated to extend dramatically. With higher healthcare and breakthroughs in biotechnology, dwelling to 100 could possibly be frequent by the tip of the century.
However this brings a giant problem: how will we take care of an ageing inhabitants?
By 2080, right this moment’s millennials will likely be retirees.
They usually’re a much bigger cohort than the newborn boomers.
Our aged care system, already underneath stress, simply gained’t cope with no dramatic transformation.
“We’ll hit a disaster level in about 15 years when the variety of 85+ Australians doubles,” Simon warned. “And that’s just the start.”
It raises powerful questions.
Will euthanasia turn out to be a extra accepted end-of-life possibility?
Will we work into our 80s?
What position will households play in caring for one another as geographic mobility will increase and fewer grownup youngsters dwell close to ageing dad and mom?
We’ll want new methods, resembling community-based care, good houses that help independence, and maybe even AI-assisted eldercare, to assist individuals dwell more healthy, longer, and with dignity.
The way forward for work: knowledge-based, tech-driven
In 1925, most individuals labored in agriculture, factories, or trades.
In the present day, it’s providers, finance, well being, and know-how.
Quick ahead to 2125 and you may count on the data financial system to dominate much more.
Actually most individuals can have jobs we will’t even think about but, however they’ll be mental in nature.
With AI and automation more likely to substitute many routine and bodily duties, human worth will more and more lie in inventive considering, empathy, management, and efficient decision-making.
This might help a continued shift towards distant work, lowering the necessity to cluster close to metropolis centres.
Our cities may turn out to be polycentric, clusters of labor and life-style hubs dotted all through the suburbs.
And sure, we’ll in all probability work longer – with life expectancy approaching 100, the concept of retiring at 65 will appear quaint.
“We are able to’t have individuals retired for 35 years whereas solely working 35 years,” Simon identified. The maths merely doesn’t work. “
Anticipate retirement to be phased, versatile, and optionally available.
Housing: good, smaller, and constructed to final
Take into consideration how houses have modified during the last century: from outhouses and iceboxes to double garages, ducted aircon, and media rooms.
Houses in 2125 will look completely different once more. Given land constraints and better development prices, houses are more likely to turn out to be smaller, smarter, and extra power environment friendly.
Anticipate modular development, photo voltaic integration, and common design for getting old in place.
However even when inhabitants development slows later this century, the variety of dwellings we want will hold rising due to smaller households.
If the common family measurement drops from 2.5 to 2.0 over the following 100 years, and we double our inhabitants, we’ll want much more housing than we do right this moment.
Meaning larger demand, denser developments, and certain a rethinking of suburban sprawl.
Migration & multiculturalism: our best social asset
Again in 1925, Australia was largely white, Anglo-Celtic, and Christian.
In the present day, we’re probably the most multicultural nations on Earth.
Migration has formed our financial and social resilience.
Roughly two-thirds of our inhabitants development now comes from immigration. And that’s not anticipated to vary.
“Australia is a grand nationwide experiment in multiculturalism,” mentioned Simon. “And to date, it’s been a hit.”
By 2125, we’ll doubtless be much more numerous and hopefully, even higher at inclusion.
However that requires effort.
It means ensuring all Australians really feel linked to their communities, can take part totally within the financial system, and really feel a way of shared function.
Expertise: a blessing, a problem, and an accelerant
From smartphones to AI, know-how is evolving sooner than any of us can sustain with.
The subsequent 100 years will deliver modifications we will barely think about right this moment.
As Simon famous, “Innovation all the time comes first, regulation catches up later.”
The true problem gained’t be creating new know-how; it’ll be shaping it ethically and responsibly.
Suppose of the present debates round social media, knowledge privateness, and AI regulation.
Now think about them supercharged.
But when we get it proper, know-how may resolve most of the issues we’re apprehensive about right this moment, from aged care and loneliness to infrastructure planning and productiveness.
Values: spirituality, that means & human connection
Apparently, whereas Australia has turn out to be extra secular, Simon believes faith or spirituality may make a comeback, not essentially in conventional kinds, however as a seek for that means.
“Simply because one thing didn’t occur doesn’t imply it isn’t true,” he mentioned, referencing how spiritual tales is perhaps seen as metaphors, not literal occasions.
As individuals seek for function in a fast-changing, usually chaotic world, these traditions may provide a way of grounding.
We’ll want that, particularly as AI, local weather change, and geopolitical volatility make the world really feel much less sure.
Connection, whether or not by religion, household, neighborhood or know-how, will matter greater than ever.
Ultimate ideas: we form the long run right this moment
It’s straightforward to look forward and really feel overwhelmed.
However keep in mind, the Australia of right this moment was as soon as unimaginable too.
Again then, indoor bathrooms had been a luxurious. Ladies weren’t within the workforce. Suburbs didn’t exist.
There have been no supermarkets, no Gold Coast, no multiculturalism.
Now look how far we’ve come.
As Simon mirrored, “The true present we may give the Australians of 2125 is a snapshot of how we really feel right this moment: our optimism, our fears, our hopes. Then they’ll ask: Have been we proper?”
The long run isn’t mounted.
It’s constructed by the values we select to champion, the insurance policies we implement, and the communities we create.
And for property buyers, enterprise leaders, policymakers and on a regular basis Australians, now could be the time to suppose long-term.
As a result of the selections we make right this moment will echo throughout the following 100 years.
In case you discovered this dialogue useful, do not forget to subscribe to our podcast and share it with others who may profit.
Subscribe now in your favorite Podcast participant:
