By Sammy Hudes

Cities like Toronto and Vancouver have seen condominium gross sales drop off, if not stagnate, lately following a rush of latest provide opening up and plummeting investor demand.

For some areas, that marks a divergence from the general actual property image. Many business watchers are actually forecasting a turnaround within the housing market within the coming months after the primary half of 2025 was stricken by financial uncertainty associated to tariffs and job losses.

It’s left these seeking to depart condominium life behind and improve to a home in a tricky spot: promote now at a decrease than anticipated worth, or wait out the storm.

“They’re sort of caught,” stated Victor Tran, a mortgage and actual property knowledgeable for Charges.ca.

“They hoped to financial institution on the appreciation of the condominium within the coming years to allow them to pull that cash out and use that as a down cost to improve to a bigger house. However the cash is simply not there anymore.”

Since 2022, condominium condo gross sales have dropped by 75% within the Better Toronto Space and 37% within the Vancouver space, respectively, stated a report final month by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. In the meantime, inventories have greater than doubled and costs have fallen in these areas.

The nationwide housing company stated the condominium market is anticipated to stay weak as completions “stay close to report ranges and demand stays subdued.” It added there’s little proof to recommend value declines will rapidly reverse “given the nationwide and international financial outlook.”

“There are particular (conditions) the place sellers have simply determined to hit the promote button and take a loss on their condos, sadly, and simply transfer on,” stated Adil Dinani, a Vancouver-based actual property agent at Royal LePage West Actual Property Companies.

“There’s an absence of liquidity within the condominium market, in order that’s stopping potential move-up consumers from reallocating that cash, or consumers from shifting up out there, doubtlessly, as a result of their condos aren’t price what they anticipated them to be price.”

A report launched by the Toronto Regional Actual Property Board in Might confirmed condominium condo gross sales within the Better Toronto Space have been down 21.7% within the first quarter of this yr in contrast with the primary three months 2024. In the meantime, new listings within the quarter have been up 25.2% year-over-year for that section.

Rental gross sales have been down 2.5% final month on a year-over-year foundation, roughly according to general house gross sales tendencies for the area. Nevertheless, that got here after exercise within the condominium market declined 25.1% in Might — far outpacing the drop in gross sales for different housing sorts.

That month, indifferent house gross sales declined 10.6%, townhouses have been down 9.8% and semi-detached houses ticked 0.3% decrease from Might 2024.

Toronto-area actual property agent Vy Ngo described the condominium market as “brutal,” at the same time as exercise has began to stabilize in the case of different properties.

“I’ve a number of condominium listings proper now. It’s very tough to promote,” stated Ngo, a gross sales consultant with Large Metropolis Realty Inc.

“It’ll in all probability be trending down the remainder of the yr, (into) subsequent yr. It’s going to be awhile till it picks again up.”

In Better Vancouver, there have been 1,040 gross sales of condominium flats final month, a 16.5 per cent lower in contrast with June 2024. That was a steeper year-over-year decline relative to gross sales of indifferent homes, which have been down 5.3 per cent from June 2024, whereas gross sales of connected homes have been up 3.7 per cent.

For the time being, Dinani stated the market value for a profitable condominium sale is finally depending on “who’s essentially the most motivated vendor within the neighbourhood.”

“Some sellers are open-minded and are ready the place they wish to promote and so they’re dedicated to promoting, and there are nonetheless consumers for these properties,” he stated.

“However in the event you’re ready the place you will have your mindset caught on a sure value or a sure expectation and the market’s not supporting it, we’re simply encouraging sellers to hit the brakes and discover options. In order that they’re staying within the house long-term, renting the property out if their monetary state of affairs permits them to take action, after which revisiting it.”

Tran known as it a “scary time” for folks seeking to improve to a bigger house because of the dangers concerned in promoting their present property, corresponding to the chance that discovering a purchaser might take for much longer than hoped.

Whereas he stated it’s safer to promote first after which make a proposal on a brand new property to purchase, that additionally comes with the danger of not discovering a property in time to maneuver.

“Lots of people are questioning, like ‘OK, when are we going to hit the underside, when are we going to see some restoration and confidence put again into the market, when are we going to start out seeing issues flip round?’ Nobody is aware of,” stated Tran.

“I, personally, don’t suppose it’s going to be any time quickly.”