Key takeaways
Home rents stabilise: Mixed capital metropolis home rents have remained flat for 5 consecutive quarters, the longest interval of stability since 2014-16. Melbourne, Adelaide, Canberra, and Sydney all noticed zero home hire progress.
Unit hire surge fades: Unit rents throughout mixed capitals have additionally flatlined for 2 consecutive quarters, a primary in a decade. Perth noticed its first unit hire lower since 2017, whereas Hobart noticed its first lower in over a yr.
Brisbane and Darwin buck the development: Each home and unit rents grew this quarter in Brisbane and Darwin. Darwin recorded the sharpest quarterly will increase – 5.9% ($40) for homes and three.1% ($17) for models, reclaiming its spot because the second-most costly metropolis to hire a home.
Landlords keep the higher hand: Emptiness charges have inched greater, however stay under 2% in all capitals, conserving the rental market strongly in landlords’ favour.
After three relentless years of hire hikes that pushed many tenants to their monetary limits, Australia’s rental market has lastly hit pause.
However make no mistake, this isn’t an indication that tenants are abruptly getting reduction.
It’s extra just like the market has reached its ceiling.
In keeping with Area’s Chief of Analysis and Economics, Dr Nicola Powell:
“Australia’s rental market has entered a brand new section: report highs however no additional progress.”
In different phrases, rents haven’t fallen, they’ve simply stopped climbing, for now.
The massive image: from acceleration to stabilisation
Accordong to Area’s Rental Report, home rents within the mixed capitals have now been unchanged for 5 consecutive quarters , the longest stretch of stability since 2014–2016.
That’s left annual progress at zero for 2 consecutive quarters, one thing we haven’t seen in a decade.
Desk 1: Home rents, quarterly and annual modifications
| HOUSES | MEDIAN RENTAL ASKING PRICE | ||||||
| Capital Metropolis | Sep-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-24 | Quarterly change | Annual change | Standing |
| Sydney | $780 | $780 | $770 | 0.0% | 1.3% | Document (regular) |
| Melbourne | $580 | $580 | $580 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Document (regular) |
| Brisbane | $660 | $650 | $625 | 1.5% | 5.6% | Document (new) |
| Adelaide | $620 | $620 | $600 | 0.0% | 3.3% | Document (regular) |
| Perth | $700 | $700 | $660 | 0.0% | 6.1% | Document (regular) |
| Canberra | $700 | $700 | $680 | 0.0% | 2.9% | Document (regular) |
| Darwin | $720 | $680 | $680 | 5.9% | 5.9% | Document (new) |
| Hobart | $580 | $575 | $550 | 0.9% | 5.5% | Document (new) |
| Mixed Capitals | $650 | $650 | $650 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Document (regular) |
Items, which had been carrying the affordability overflow from homes, are actually exhibiting the identical development.
They’ve flatlined for 2 quarters, with annual progress slowing to only 3.2%, the weakest since 2021.
Desk 2: Unit rents, quarterly and annual modifications
| UNITS | MEDIAN RENTAL ASKING PRICE | ||||||
| Capital Metropolis | Sep-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-24 | Quarterly change | Annual change | Standing |
| Sydney | $750 | $740 | $715 | 1.4% | 4.9% | Document (new) |
| Melbourne | $575 | $575 | $550 | 0.0% | 4.5% | Document (regular) |
| Brisbane | $630 | $620 | $590 | 1.6% | 6.8% | Document (new) |
| Adelaide | $520 | $520 | $495 | 0.0% | 5.1% | Document (regular) |
| Perth | $600 | $620 | $575 | -3.2% | 4.3% | $20 decrease than Jun-25 report |
| Canberra | $580 | $580 | $550 | 0.0% | 5.5% | Document (regular) |
| Darwin | $580 | $563 | $550 | 3.1% | 5.5% | Document (new) |
| Hobart | $490 | $500 | $460 | -2.0% | 6.5% | $10 decrease than Jun-25 report |
| Mixed Capitals | $650 | $650 | $630 | 0.0% | 3.2% | Document (regular) |
So sure, rents are nonetheless painfully excessive, however the tempo of enhance has clearly damaged.
This marks a major turning level within the rental cycle.
Desk 3: Home and unit mixed rental emptiness charges
| HOUSE AND UNIT COMBINED | RENTAL VACANCY RATES | |||||
| Capital Metropolis | Sep-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-24 | Quarterly proportion level change | Annual proportion level change |
| Sydney | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | -0.2 ppt | -0.2 ppt |
| Melbourne | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.1 ppt | 0.1 ppt |
| Brisbane | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.0 ppt | -0.2 ppt |
| Perth | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0 ppt | 0.0 ppt |
| Adelaide | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0 ppt | 0.1 ppt |
| Hobart | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | -0.2 ppt | -0.3 ppt |
| Canberra | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.2 ppt | -0.3 ppt |
| Darwin | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1 ppt | -0.3 ppt |
| Mixed Capitals | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.0 ppt | -0.1 ppt |
| Mixed Regionals | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | -0.1 ppt | -0.1 ppt |
| Nationwide | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0 ppt | 0.0 ppt |
Metropolis by metropolis: the story behind the numbers
Every capital metropolis is telling a barely completely different model of the identical story: excessive rents, easing momentum, and tenants hitting affordability limits.
Sydney
Sydney’s home rents held regular at $780 per week by the September quarter, the primary time in six years they haven’t risen throughout this era.
That’s introduced annual progress down to only 1.3%, the weakest since 2020.
It’s clear that tenants merely can’t stretch any additional.
Items, nevertheless, are nonetheless inching greater: up 1.4% to a report $750 per week.
The hole between homes and models has narrowed to only $30, the smallest in half a decade.
It’s a robust sign that renters are shifting towards flats in the hunt for relative affordability.
Even so, Sydney’s emptiness price stays razor-thin at 0.9%, underscoring that the town’s housing pressures are removed from resolved.
Melbourne
Melbourne’s home rents are holding agency at $580 per week, unchanged for 5 consecutive quarters, its longest interval of stability since 2011–2012.
Annual progress is flat, and Melbourne now ties with Hobart as the most affordable metropolis to hire a home.
Unit rents additionally stay caught at $575 per week, with progress at 4.5%, its weakest in three years.
The value hole between homes and models has shrunk to only $5, virtually indistinguishable.
Emptiness charges have nudged up barely to 1.4%, the best since 2022, suggesting provide is enhancing, however the market nonetheless isn’t balanced.
Brisbane
Brisbane is likely one of the few outliers.
Home rents climbed 1.5% to $660 per week, whereas models rose 1.6% to $630 per week, each at report highs.
However these are way more modest will increase than the double-digit surges we noticed from 2021 to 2023.
It’s changing into clear that Brisbane, too, is approaching its affordability ceiling.
Emptiness charges stay at a particularly tight 0.7%, making certain competitors for leases stays fierce.
Adelaide and Canberra
In each Adelaide and Canberra, rents have plateaued for the primary time in years.
Adelaide home rents have now been flat for 2 consecutive quarters, a five-year first, holding at $620 per week.
Unit rents are additionally unchanged at $520 per week, the primary steady stretch in virtually two years.
Canberra tells the same story: home and unit rents are each caught at report highs ($700 and $580 per week, respectively).
The town’s emptiness price has edged as much as 1.3%, nonetheless tight, however barely extra forgiving than final yr.
Why the pause? A market at its limits
A number of forces are converging to maintain rents excessive however cease them from rising additional:
Affordability fatigue: After years of hire will increase, many tenants merely can’t pay extra. Incomes haven’t stored up, and renters are reaching their monetary limits.
Inhabitants progress cooling: Migration-fuelled demand, a serious driver lately, has eased barely.
Extra investor exercise: Larger yields and a stabilising rate of interest outlook have inspired some traders again into the market, slowly boosting rental provide.
Coverage assist for first-home consumers: Packages just like the expanded First Residence Assure are serving to some renters transition into possession, regularly easing rental demand.
Dr Powell summed it up neatly: after three years of relentless hire hikes, “progress has stalled – homes stopped first, now models have adopted.”
What it means for tenants and traders
For tenants, the message is bittersweet.
Rents stay at report highs, however at the very least they’ve stopped climbing for now.
Reduction is proscribed, however stability presents predictability, one thing renters haven’t had in years.
For traders, this section of the cycle requires realism.
The times of speedy hire beneficial properties are over, at the very least for the second.
However sturdy demand and tight emptiness charges imply yields ought to maintain agency.
Markets like Brisbane and Darwin, the place rents are nonetheless rising, might supply short-term upside, however most capitals are getting into a “excessive however steady” section.
In different phrases, the rental market isn’t collapsing, it’s catching its breath.
The underside line
Australia’s rental market has shifted gears.
After years of speedy escalation, we’re getting into a brand new chapter: one outlined by excessive rents, low vacancies, and restricted progress potential.
This pause isn’t the beginning of a downturn; it’s an indication of a maturing cycle.
Rents have reached the boundaries of affordability, and until provide meaningfully will increase, we’re unlikely to see main drops, only a lengthy plateau at painful ranges.
For traders, this reinforces the significance of specializing in high quality belongings in places with sustainable demand drivers, somewhat than chasing short-term hire progress.
And for tenants, it’s a small reprieve, although not but a motive to have fun.
