Canada’s gross home product fell 0.1% in June, the third straight month-to-month decline and the primary such streak since 2022, Statistics Canada reported.
Actual GDP additionally contracted 0.4% within the second quarter (–1.6% annualized), following a 0.5% acquire in Q1, which was revised barely decrease. On a per-capita foundation, GDP declined 0.4% in Q2, after rising 0.4% within the earlier quarter.
“As anticipated, the economic system contracted within the second quarter, as exports have been walloped by the one-two punch of weaker U.S. demand and the unwind of a tariff-front operating induced surge in Q1,” wrote TD’s Rishi Sondhi in a be aware.
The Q2 contraction was led by a 7.5% drop in exports, together with a 24.7% plunge in car shipments on account of U.S. tariffs, the company reported. Items-producing industries contracted 0.5% in June as manufacturing fell 1.5%, with about two-fifths of producers reporting that their actions have been negatively affected by tariffs.
BMO’s Benjamin Reitzes famous the report “wasn’t all unhealthy information,” pointing to stronger family spending, up 1.1% within the quarter (4.5% annualized), and residential funding, which rose 1.6% (6.3% annualized).
Advance data signifies that actual GDP elevated 0.1% in July.
Economists divided on September price name as GDP weakens
Between tariff pressures and softer U.S. demand, economists say the GDP information affords combined alerts, leaving September’s Financial institution of Canada price determination unsure. Some famous the figures have been largely in step with the central financial institution’s forecast and should not, on their very own, be sufficient to shift coverage.
Sondhi argued that stronger-than-expected home demand may strengthen the case for the Financial institution to carry charges. Nonetheless, he famous {that a} stronger third quarter may convey decrease inflation, opening the door to additional cuts.
“The contraction in general GDP additionally implies that slack constructed within the economic system in Q2, and even with a greater efficiency in Q3 doubtless on faucet, the economic system in all probability stays in extra provide,” he wrote. “This factors to additional downward stress on inflation and will pave the way in which for extra price cuts this 12 months…particularly with a coverage price solely on the mid-point of what the Financial institution considers impartial for the economic system.”
CIBC’s Andrew Grantham expects the Financial institution of Canada to chop charges on Sept. 17 and sees additional easing as essential to assist the restoration.
“We proceed to assume {that a} couple extra rate of interest cuts from the Financial institution of Canada are wanted to speed up the restoration, and assuming no fireworks in subsequent week’s (employment) figures, we forecast the primary of these being delivered on the upcoming September assembly,” he mentioned.
Nonetheless, upcoming jobs and inflation stories will present additional readability forward of the September determination.
Markets are assigning a 55% chance to a September minimize, with a transfer by year-end absolutely priced in.
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Final modified: August 29, 2025
